Arizona's home construction has slipped to its lowest rate since the start of the pandemic, according to HUD figures cited this week by former Tolleson Mayor and ex-ACC member Anna Tovar in an Arizona Capitol Times column. She calls it a housing stalemate and presses state leaders to clear the way for building rather than searching for villains.
The consequence is straightforward economics. When new supply stalls, prices drift up faster than wages, and builders hesitate to pull permits. Tovar warns that if the pattern holds, Arizona risks pushing working families further from ownership and denting the state's jobs magnet.
Her column points to May's home construction falling 8.5 percent from a year earlier. That is a rate-of-change datapoint, not a level, but paired with the "post-pandemic low" claim it signals soft momentum. One month is not a trend, yet the direction matters for a market already strained by high rates, materials costs, and labor tightness.
Tovar backs a practical fix: predictable approvals. She highlights SB 1566, authored by Senate President Warren Petersen and signed by Gov. Katie Hobbs, which sets clearer timelines for municipal permitting. Shot clocks do not pour concrete, but they cut carrying costs and make pro forma math less volatile.
Here is the performance test that should follow the press release. Agencies and cities should publish median review days from complete submittal to decision, variance by project type, and the share decided within the statutory window. If those numbers do not improve over two to three quarters, the reform is underdelivering and leadership should say why.
Tovar also flags Hobbs' ongoing overhaul of water regulations and the need to balance conservation with growth. That balance matters. Rules that lack transparent, bankable pathways to secure supplies function like shadow moratoria. Sensible guardrails tie approvals to verifiable offsets and audited replenishment, not indefinite uncertainty that freezes projects mid-design.
On rent dynamics, Tovar urges lawmakers to avoid scapegoating pricing software. She argues there is no evidence algorithms make housing more expensive and says the data show these tools push landlords to cut rents faster when demand falls. Even if some practices warrant scrutiny, banning tools that speed adjustments risks stickier, not cheaper, rents.
The core diagnosis is supply. Arizona's affordability problem is not primarily landlords or realtors, it is too few doors for too many households. That is a denominator problem, and it is solved by faster, more reliable throughput from application to certificate of occupancy across single family, small infill, and mid-rise apartments.
Politically, credit where due: Petersen advanced a bill to inject predictability, and Hobbs signed it. But one statute will not reverse a post-pandemic low on its own. Voters should expect a public delivery plan with quarterly targets for permit timelines, starts per 1,000 residents, and water approvals cleared, plus a candid accounting if targets are missed.
Break the stalemate by measuring what matters, fixing what is slow, and letting builders respond to demand. If construction stays at pandemic-era lows, higher prices are not a messaging problem, they are a math problem Arizona cannot wish away.
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