Judge cuts Prop 212 signatures as deadline nears; ballot fate now rests on county rates and likely appeal

A Maricopa County judge has tossed thousands of signatures tied to the Protect Education Act, yet whether the school voucher reform initiative makes November's ballot remains unsettled days before the state's printing deadline.

The ruling arrives with the clock ticking. Arizona must finalize general election ballots by Aug. 20, and both sides expect a fast-track appeal to the state Supreme Court once fresh signature validity rates arrive from the final two counties.

The expedited order from Judge David McDowell sided with Empowerment Scholarship Account advocates who argued that Protect Education Act circulators failed to gather enough valid signatures. McDowell removed signatures from multiple circulators and agreed with the plaintiffs on how to handle duplicate signatures, a swing factor that could keep the measure off the ballot.

Backers submitted more than 421,000 signatures, comfortably above the 255,949 minimum. The Secretary of State's Office cut that total to 389,376 for county random sampling, the step that produces a formal validity rate. The court subtracts more after plaintiffs objected to certain circulators for reasons including clerical mistakes in addresses or phone numbers and unresolved felony civil-rights restorations.

Duplicate signatures are a separate hit. State law rejects all but one when a person signs an initiative more than once. That approach could disqualify another 24,369 signatures, a margin the Arizona Capitol Times reported is the difference between making or missing the ballot.

Protect Education Act attorneys warned that counting duplicates again in court risks double counting because counties already bake similar disqualifications into the validity rate. McDowell rejected that premise. "The court agrees that it is conceivable that a double count could occur, but the court cannot make a decision based upon a hypothetical double counting of duplicate signatures," he wrote.

Even so, McDowell could not determine ballot eligibility at the time of his ruling. Not all counties had finished their review of the Secretary's random sample, so a final validity rate remains outstanding.

Plaintiffs' attorney Kory Langhofer said the case is waiting on Maricopa and Apache counties. If those offices report rates similar to the average from the other 13 counties, he said, the initiative would fall short by about 6,300 signatures.

According to the ruling, plaintiffs challenged signatures collected by more than 110 circulators. Many of those petitions face removal for the clerical and legal deficiencies described in trial testimony during three days of hearings.

For families, educators, and districts, the uncertainty is the problem. Policy remains in limbo while the outcome turns on paperwork, sampling math, and how courts read duplicate rules, not on a settled, statewide debate.

The calendar crunch was foreseeable. Ballot design and printing do not wait for perfect clarity, which is why the courts are expediting the case to allow a quick appeal. County recorders and printers now have to plan for multiple scenarios while they wait on two counties' rates and potential Supreme Court action.

What to watch next: the final validity rates from Maricopa and Apache, whether McDowell's duplicate-signature treatment holds on appeal, and whether the state can lock the ballot on time. Until then, voters and schools should brace for last-minute clarity on Proposition 212.

See an error? Email corrections@saguarosignal.com. We append material corrections to the article.